|
Types of risks |
Line code |
Causes of risk |
Risk Prevention Measures |
|
Demand volatility |
1. increase in product prices as a result of an increase in the cost of production 2. decrease in the level of solvency of consumers 3. change in product quality 4. change in consumer requirements 5. price cuts by competitors 6. emergence of an alternative product 7. emergence of new competitors |
Continuous analysis of market conditions in order to identify new consumers of products; Market research to assess changes in the level of demand; Efficient accounting, pricing and tax policy pursued by the enterprise; Continuous application of measures to reduce the cost of products. |
|
|
Rising prices for raw materials, electricity and fuel |
1. Increase in production costs and, as a result, an increase in cost 2. Increasing demand for cheaper sources of production |
Search for alternative suppliers; Formation of stocks of raw materials and materials. |
|
|
Non-fulfillment of contracts for the shipment of products |
1 Dependence on suppliers, untimely delivery of the necessary raw materials; 2. Bad faith of the personnel of the supplier and our organization; 3. The attitude of local authorities: the possibility of introducing additional restrictions (taxes) that complicate the sale of products and the project as a whole; 4. Force majeure. |
Formation of stocks of raw materials (mainly flour) and products in case of receipt of an order for the supply of products; The conclusion of a contract for the supply only with advance payment for the products. |
Continuation of Table 17
|
Decline in production and sales |
1. Increase in prices for raw materials, materials, fuel, electricity; 2. Reduced product quality; 3. Emergence of new competitors on the market. |
Conclusion of firm contracts for the supply of products; Direction of processes to improve product quality and improve technology. |
|
|
Deterioration in product quality |
1. Reducing production capacity; 2. Decrease in the quality of raw materials and materials |
Constant control of product quality; - improvement of production technology; Formation of a list of alternative suppliers. |
|
|
Risk of not receiving materials due to the termination of concluded supply contracts |
1. Acceptance by the supplier of a decision to change the terms of the contract for the supply of raw materials; 2. Force majeure circumstances leading to the impossibility of delivering raw materials necessary for the production of products (transport accidents). |
Expansion of the composition of suppliers; Creation of insurance stocks of raw materials; Development of a system for the functioning of the organization in the search for alternative suppliers. |
|
|
Political risk |
The possibility of losses or reduced profits as a result of government policy. |
Constant monitoring of the political situation in the country, as well as paying attention to changes in legislation. |
Continuation of Table 17
The value of the break-even point of production is determined in physical and cost terms based on the results of the implementation of this investment project:
Based on the data obtained, it can be seen that with a production volume of 5353114 pcs. and revenue 37900047.12 rubles. The company is not yet making a profit, but it is not making any losses either. The volume of production and revenue after the implementation of the investment project is characterized by the following indicators: output in physical and monetary terms will reach 11,653,000 units. and 82503240 rubles. respectively.
It is also necessary to determine the margin of safety for the production of Zheleznodorozhny bread:
So, the excess of the volume of production of Zheleznodorozhny bread after the implementation of the project and the volume of production at the break-even point is 54.06%.
Thus, we can conclude that this investment project is resistant to various fluctuations of external factors (inflation rate; refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; risks associated with the activities of the bakery), since the break-even level is 45.94%.
1A detailed author's classification of risk factors is proposed, which can be used in the development of long-term plans and development strategies, in addition, a three-stage risk analysis scheme is considered. The concretization of factors and risk assessment schemes is presented for enterprises of the military-industrial complex (DIC), for which such assessments are of paramount importance, ultimately affecting economic and national security. It is proposed to subdivide risk factors into external and internal components in relation to the enterprise (OPK), then, within each component, to single out groups of factors that characterize one or another aspect of the enterprise's activity (production, management, technology, and others - for the internal environment and environmental, political, competitive, scientific and technical, etc. - for external types of risk); for each group, relevant examples and situations are given. These conditions for the implementation of a risk event make it possible to compile a comprehensive description of possible risks and develop measures to prevent / reduce them in the long term.
defense industry enterprises
strategic programs
external and internal risk factors
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3. Kolesov K.I., Antonov A.S. Methodological aspects risk management based on the implementation of the internal control system // Proceedings of NNSTU im. R.E. Alekseev. - 2013. - No. 3. - P. 272–278.
4. Kornilov D.A., Yashin S.N. Efficient Management Based on a combination of planning and forecasting capabilities // Bulletin of the Nizhny Novgorod University. N.I. Lobachevsky. Series: Economics and Finance. - 2005. - No. 1. - P. 98–103.
5. Strategic planning of NGO activities and industrial enterprises based on portfolio and SWOT analysis: monograph / F.F. Yurlov and others; NSTU im. R.E. Alekseev. - N. Novgorod, 2013 - 254 p.
Strategic analysis and planning of the activities of an enterprise, industry and any economic system are necessary to determine the factors for achieving a strategic goal, answer the question “how to achieve the desired state?”, As well as take into account risk factors that may interfere with the goals set. Strategic planning should be carried out taking into account the impact external environment, which is characterized by various kinds of abrupt changes: market conditions, the number and influence of competitors on the market, the level of saturation of sales markets, the emergence of new products, changes in the political situation in the country, the solvency of customers of the economic system, etc. These fluctuations create a high degree of uncertainty for the enterprise when making decisions. It is also necessary to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the organization itself when setting certain tasks. strategic development, because under certain circumstances, strengths can become weaknesses (and vice versa). Therefore, it is necessary to separately analyze the internal and external risks of the organization, taking into account the set strategic goal. Analysis and assessment of risks, as well as the strengths of the organization and the opportunities of the external environment, must be taken into account when developing a strategic development plan.
The military-industrial complex (DIC) is one of the most important economic systems in Russia, solving the tasks of the state in the field of innovative development of the country. It is this industry that is given priority in the implementation of work on the creation of modern types of military equipment, the production of innovative products and technologies, the conduct of both applied and fundamental research, the integration of science and production. The activities of defense industry enterprises affect the economic security of the country; the possibility of undesirable events in this industry affects the emergence of government risks in the field of research and development, scientific and technological development, national security, etc.
Risk analysis is an important step in developing a strategic plan. The main goal is a thorough study of the existing external and internal risks of the enterprise, consideration of the factors of occurrence of risk events and consequences. Risk is present in every area of an organization's activities; we will understand by it the threat of failure to achieve the target values (solution of the set strategic tasks) in the process of implementing the strategic plan. The assessment of the consequences of this failure to achieve will be an indicator of the impact of the risk on the implementation of the plan.
The proposed risk analysis scheme based on the example of defense industry enterprises consists of three main steps:
1. Definition internal factors risk of the enterprise, contributing to the occurrence of a risk event. This task is implemented by identifying internal sources and objects of risk ( weaknesses activities of the organization) based on classifications.
2. Determination of external risk factors of the enterprise that prevent the desired event from occurring. This task is realized by identifying external threats activities of the organization based on classifications.
The main goal of the first two stages is to identify, systematize and characterize all possible sources of risk and factors for the implementation of risk events.
3. Assessment of the importance of risks in the implementation of the strategic development plan.
When analyzing the risks of an enterprise, carried out as part of building an integrated risk management system, the following important points should be taken into account:
To implement a risk event, the simultaneous presence of:
For the implementation of a risk event, the following conditions are necessary:
Based on the analysis scheme proposed above, we examine the risks of defense industry enterprises. At the first stage, we consider the possible internal risks of enterprises in this industry. To do this, it is necessary to determine the assessment parameters by which we will group the risks:
The results of the allocation of risks according to these parameters are given in Table. one.
In accordance with the above classification, it is possible to further strategic analysis identify sources, objects and factors of internal risks of the activities of defense industry enterprises.
At the second stage of the analysis, we consider the possible external risks of enterprises in this industry. To do this, it is necessary to determine the assessment parameters by which we will group external threats:
The results of identifying external risks (threats to the implementation of the strategic development program) according to these parameters are given in Table. 2.
Table 1
Internal risks of defense industry enterprises
|
Internal risks |
||
|
Production |
Problems with industrial cooperation: unwillingness of enterprises to participate in cooperation; the need to finalize orders made through cooperation; the presence of unprofitable enterprises in cooperation. Imbalance between the indicator of the volume of products manufactured by cooperation and the volume performed on its own |
|
|
Impossibility to complete the State Defense Order in full and on time |
||
|
Irrational use of production capacities; inefficient use of equipment; underutilization of production capacities |
||
|
Limited production capacities and their inconsistency with planned production volumes |
||
|
Loss of working time; shortcomings in the regulation of production processes; lack of raw materials and supplies; ineffective support services |
||
|
Weak renewal of production assets |
||
|
The need to increase production capacities for the development of new products of technology and the development of previously developed |
||
|
Control |
The need to search for new approaches to management in a situation caused by an increase in the volume of work and insufficient readiness of enterprises participating in cooperation to solve the tasks set for the enterprise |
|
|
It is necessary to study the issue of creating an integrated management structure, including leading research institutes and manufacturing enterprises |
||
|
Deficiencies in organizational structure enterprises; shortcomings in operational planning, strategic management and forecasting; wrong choice of management methods |
||
|
Risks associated with the restructuring of the enterprise to improve the management system |
||
|
Organizational, legal, informational bases that regulate the processes of interaction between the enterprise and the structures ordering and performing work are not perfect. |
||
|
Technique and technology |
Violation of the rules for the operation of equipment, moral and physical deterioration of equipment; insufficient reliability of the equipment; violation of terms of service |
|
|
Wrong way of technological preparation of production; use of non-progressive technological processes; use of inefficient technologies; low level of technologists; absence software |
||
|
High costs for the transition to new technologies and equipment |
||
|
Market indicators |
Long production and financial cycle |
|
|
Narrow range of products |
||
|
Supply disruptions |
||
|
Lack of marketing service; insufficient definition of demand for manufactured products; unreliable definition of market share |
||
|
Achievement of competitive advantages by non-market methods. Non-market management methods. Non-market ways of implementation |
||
|
Weak promotion policy |
||
|
Lack of information about competitors; incorrect positioning of goods |
||
|
Lack of analysis of consumer information |
||
|
Cost increase |
||
|
Decreased profitability indicators; insufficient return on investment. Low profitability of work done through cooperation |
||
|
Delays in payment of the state defense order; failure to receive the required scheduled loans. Delays in customer payment procedures |
||
|
Decrease in liquidity and financial stability indicators |
||
|
High accounts receivable |
||
|
Innovation |
Insufficient R&D effectiveness; low weight of science-intensive products; few/insufficient number of patents and licenses |
|
|
Insufficient funding innovation activities; the difficulty of taking into account the time factor in development; lack of research base |
||
|
Excess of production volumes over R&D volumes |
||
|
Staff |
Non-participation of personnel in the adoption management decisions. Low interest of ordinary employees in the development of the enterprise |
|
|
Great dependence on highly qualified specialists. Lack of qualified specialists to fulfill orders (especially in research and development and innovation) |
table 2
External risks of defense industry enterprises
|
External risks |
||
|
Economic |
Macroeconomic instability; a significant increase in inflation; irrational tax policy; a sharp change in the exchange rate |
|
|
Risk of violation of legislation in the field of taxation |
||
|
Rising costs associated with the arms race |
||
|
Sequester of federal budgets targeted programs |
||
|
Risks of incorrect forecasting of the macroeconomic situation and market development |
||
|
Risk of violation of the conditions of budget financing; termination of state guarantees; violation of the financing of the state order; delays in the financing of the state defense order |
||
|
The unpreparedness of defense industry enterprises to master the increasing volumes of production (disruption of work on cooperation) |
||
|
Irrational pricing policy in the defense industry |
||
|
Decrease in real incomes of the population; decrease in the standard of living of the population; decrease in macroeconomic indicators of the country; non-competitiveness of economic sectors |
||
|
Possible bankruptcy proceedings; tariff increase; suspension of the activity of the enterprise or its divisions |
||
|
International |
Negative change in the legislation of the countries - customers of the company's products. Changing international standards; a ban on imported products, raw materials, materials. Sharp deterioration economic condition foreign customers |
|
|
Unfavorable significant changes in the pricing policy of foreign consumer countries |
||
|
Disruption of previously concluded international treaties |
||
|
The emergence of foreign competitors with products that have high technical characteristics |
||
|
Reorientation of foreign customers to other executors of orders. Decrease in the volume of products supplied to other countries |
||
|
The emergence of international conflicts that have a negative impact on the implementation of concluded agreements |
||
|
Unfavorable changes in the political situation in the countries with which agreements have been concluded. Disturbance of stability in regions abroad, hindering exports |
||
|
Scientific and technical |
Reducing the level of state support for the development of science |
|
|
The emergence of alternative products on the market due to the scientific and technological revolution |
||
|
The risk of obsolescence of manufactured products |
||
|
A significant increase in the level of scientific developments abroad |
||
|
Significant increase in customer requirements for the technical level in weapons and military equipment systems |
||
|
Lack or insufficient targeted funding of the Ministry of Defense for R&D, production of new products and testing |
||
|
Deterioration of the situation with the domestic element base |
||
|
Innovation efficiency risk |
||
|
competition |
The emergence of new competitors in the market in our country and abroad |
|
|
Improving the quality and reducing the price of products offered by competitors |
||
|
Unfair competition when participating in tenders for R&D under the State Defense Order. Unfair competitive selection of projects |
||
|
Rising Barriers to Market Entry |
||
|
Partial or complete loss of the market |
||
|
Significant reduction in market capacity |
||
|
Decrease in the level of state defense order |
||
|
Violation of the deadlines for the implementation of the state defense order, leading to a decrease in demand for the company's products |
||
|
Lack of demand stability |
||
|
Sales and supply of products |
The presence of unscrupulous intermediary enterprises; price increase; supply of raw materials and materials of inadequate quality |
|
|
Disadvantages of modern information and communication technologies used in the marketing of products |
||
|
Underdevelopment of supplier selection systems |
||
|
Change in trading rules B and BT |
||
|
Risks of non-performance of contractual obligations; supply disruption; non-return of advance payment |
||
|
Political and legal |
Political instability in the country and in the countries to which the company's products are supplied |
|
|
The risk of corruption in power structures related to economic activity enterprises |
||
|
Insufficient development of legislative and legal acts related to enterprises of strategic importance |
||
|
Weak implementation of defense-related laws and government decisions |
||
|
The prevalence of politics over the economy in solving problems of national importance |
||
|
Risk of new legislative restrictions |
||
|
Risk of nationalization of business, redistribution of property |
||
|
Socio-demographic |
Unfavorable demographic situation |
|
|
Significant "outflow" of highly qualified personnel to foreign countries; |
||
|
Low wages at defense industry enterprises |
||
|
Insufficient material/moral incentives for employees |
||
|
natural and ecological |
Natural risk |
|
|
Risk of increased requirements for environmental protection |
The above classification will allow describing potential risk factors of defense industry enterprises from the standpoint of system analysis and can be used in strategic planning to take into account and evaluate various types of risk.
Reviewers:
Yashina N.I., Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Department of Finance and Financial Management, Nizhny Novgorod State University named after N.I. Lobachevsky - National Research University, Nizhny Novgorod;
Morozova G.A., Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Management and Marketing, Nizhny Novgorod Institute of Management - branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Russian Federation”, Nizhny Novgorod.
The work was received by the editors on May 28, 2014.
LLC "Liask-T"
Annotation:
This article presents the process of risk analysis, as well as considers logistical risks and suggests possible options for their elimination on the example of a real-life company "LIASK-T" - an official dealer of leading manufacturers of equipment for heat and water supply and sanitation.
This article presents a risk analysis process, and considers the logistics risks and proposes options for an exemption to real companies "LIASK-T" - the official dealer of leading manufacturers of equipment for heat, water supply and drainage.
Keywords:
Logistic risks, dealer, stages of risk analysis, probability assessment, logistics system.
The logistical risks, dealer, the stages of the risk analysis, estimation of probability, the logistics system.
UDC 656.073
Introduction.
Minimizing logistical risks in the enterprise is one of the most important tasks facing any company that focuses on success. The ability to quickly respond to changes in the environment, the ability to conduct a competent analysis of the current situation and find leverage for the emergence of a problem - this is what is most in demand in today's business environment. This question is very interesting for research and attracts many theorists and practitioners of economic science, such as Sergeev V.I., Ayupov R.K., Moiseeva N.K., as well as foreign scientists.
This article analyzes logistical risks on the example of a particular enterprise and suggests ways to solve emerging problems.
Liask-T LLC is an official dealer of leading manufacturers: Danfoss, Grundfos, Ridan. DANFOSS - automation for heat supply systems, pipeline fittings, thermostats. GRUNDFOS - pumping equipment. RIDAN - plate heat exchangers.
OOO "Liask-t" is a dealer, namely a market participant, carrying out trading activities on its own behalf and at its own expense. The most important feature of a trading and intermediary enterprise is a high degree of turnover, that is, the movement of goods in the sphere of circulation and sale.
Risk is the possibility of the occurrence of an event that, if realized, would have a negative impact on the company's achievement of its long-term and short-term goals. Risk is measured by evaluating the consequences and likelihood of events occurring.
Risk assessment is a process of systematic study and generalization of professional judgments about the likelihood of adverse conditions and (or) events.
Uncertainty can be considered as a set of situations that can be foreseen in advance, but it is impossible to determine how much they will affect the result of logistics activities. Reaction is the intentional resistance of the participants logistics process the prevailing circumstances.
A successful risk assessment very often relies on the professional judgment and experience of internal auditors and the head of internal audit.
At the Liask-T LLC enterprise, the logistics risks are assessed by the head of the logistics department.
The main goal of the head of the logistics department is to combat the negative consequences of risks, that is, to reduce losses from logistics activities at the Liask-T LLC enterprise and, if possible, increase the positive risk, that is, profit. Decisions on specific actions to protect and reduce (increase) the risk can be detailed only with a thorough study and analysis of risk situations that are possible in the future and the present.
The whole process of risk analysis can be divided into eight stages that help manage the risk (reduce its negative consequences).
Consider the content of all stages.
1. Risk identification
This stage of the analysis of logistical risks consists in the formation of a complete list of adverse events.
When identifying risks, both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment can be obtained.
To perform these tasks at the first stage of the analysis, it is necessary to use all types of risks. Since they all have a certain degree of influence on each other.
At the enterprise Liask-T LLC, the risks can be presented in the form of Table 1.
Table 1.
|
Type of risk |
|
|
1. Organizational |
1.1 Risks associated with supplier errors, errors of the logistics manager of Liask-T LLC, as well as errors of employees of outsourcing firms. 1.2 Risks associated with internal organization company work |
|
2. Market |
2.1 Risks, decrease in demand for products 2.2 Liquidity risk |
|
3. Entrepreneurial (commercial) |
3.1 Acceptance risk; 3.2 Risk associated with the sale of goods; 3.3 Risk associated with the transport of goods 3.4 Risk of profit reduction; 3.5 Risk of reduced turnover; 3.6 Risk of increase in purchase (wholesale) prices; 3.7 Risk of rising commodity and transport costs; |
|
4. Credit |
4.1 The risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations on time (violation of contractual conditions for payment); 4.2 Risks associated with payment terms; |
|
5. Technical |
5.1 Risk of fires, accidents and breakdowns, suspension of the network. 5.2 Force Majeure; |
|
6. Technical and technological |
6.1 The risk associated with the breakdown of computer equipment and other equipment, with the help of which part of the logistics functions are carried out. |
Figure 1. Morphological chain of risks at the LLC "Liask-T" enterprise.
The morphological chain presented above shows the influence of risks on each other. By identifying one risk, it is easier to identify other risks that result from it.
For example, if we consider the morphological chain, we can see that “the risk of fires, accidents and breakdowns, network interruption” leads to the emergence of such risks as:
− risk associated with acceptance;
− risk associated with the sale of goods;
− the risk associated with the transportation of goods;
− risks associated with supplier errors, errors of the logistics manager of Liask-T LLC, as well as errors of employees of outsourcing firms.
Next, we highlight the logistical risks. Logistics risks are execution risks logistics operations transportation, warehousing, cargo handling and inventory management and logistics management risks at all levels, including risks managerial nature arising from the performance of logistics functions and operations.
In order to identify all logistical risks, it is necessary for the logistician of the Liask-T LLC to designate official risks. They include:
− ordering equipment;
− planning and coordinating the schedule of shipments from suppliers optimization of schemes;
− calculation of terms and cost of delivery;
− choice of carrier and optimal vehicle;
− search for new carriers, preparation and conclusion of contracts, execution of accompanying documents, transportation insurance;
− preparation of documentation for the production of certificates;
− settlement of disputes, work with claims;
− warehouse operation control;
− inventory optimization;
− control of completeness and readiness of orders for shipment;
− conducting inventories.
2. Assessment of the likelihood of adverse events
3. Determination of the structure of the alleged damage
4. Construction of damage distribution laws.
5. Risk assessment
6. Identifying and evaluating the effectiveness of possible risk mitigation methods
Such methods are divided into groups:
7. Deciding on the definition of a list of risk management actions
8. Monitoring the effectiveness and results of the implementation of risk mitigation measures.
So, in each logistics subsystem of Liask-T LLC, you can identify your own risks, examples of which we will consider in the table below.
Table 2 . Morphological table of logistical risks of the enterprise LLC "Liask-T"
|
Name of logistics subsystems |
Solution to the problem |
|
|
The price does not match the quality of the product. Increase in the cost of purchasing 1 batch of goods |
Functional price analysis. Compliance with budget constraints. Optimization (by Pareto) of transaction conditions |
|
|
Transportation |
Increase in transport costs Violation of the delivery schedule. Loss of property |
Route optimization Dispatching. Property protection. Property insurance. Liability Insurance |
|
Storage |
Immobilization of material resources. Loss (theft) of property |
Inventory Management. Property protection. Fire fighting measures. property insurance |
|
Logistics |
Imbalance (non-compliance of supply with needs) Inconsistency in the quality of material resources. deficiency situations. Excess stocks and illiquid assets |
Rationing of the consumption of material resources. Input control. operational purchases. Inventory management. Just-in-time deliveries |
Let's consider each of these subsystems.
Based on the invoices issued by the supplier, the responsible logistician checks the correctness of the supplier's invoice, as well as the compliance of the supplier's invoice with the organization's pricing policy. It is important to check the discounts provided.
LLC "Liask-T" is an intermediary, which means shortage, regrading, goods of inadequate quality - something that a company may encounter when working with a supplier. In the event of such situations, the company's logisticians should write official letters asking for an inventory at the supplier's warehouse, as well as delivery of goods as soon as possible and at the expense of the supplier. In the event that clients impose penalties on Liask-T LLC for failure to meet delivery deadlines, the enterprise has the right to apply in writing to the supplier company with a claim for damages.
Storage:
Warehouse complex of the company "Liask-T" LLC allows you to place the goods for both short-term and long-term storage.
For such a warehouse retail goods are placed in accordance with the grouping by size on the racks. The warehouse of Liask-T LLC has sections for large and small goods. For different products, different ratios of the quantities of small, medium and large cells in the warehouse, different cell sizes in depth are needed.
Since 2013, a new system of targeted placement of goods has been introduced into the warehouse, which will help to avoid the loss of goods, regrading and losses. This is important to ensure an increase in turnover, avoid errors in the placement of goods and quickly find them even for new employees after a short briefing. Each storage location will be assigned a code (address) indicating the number of the rack (stack), the number of the vertical section and the number of the shelf. When issuing documents for the shipment or acceptance of goods, the invoice will indicate the place where this goods should be placed.
In order for all the goods to reach the address safe and sound, you should carefully consider the choice of packaging. Packaging materials can be represented by a variety of types: wooden boxes and pallets, plastic containers, rag bags, polyethylene rolls and much more. In each case, you should choose the appropriate packaging, based on the characteristics of the cargo itself and the type of its transportation.
The most important need is inventory in the warehouse:
The main tasks of the inventory are:
Transportation:
The company LLC "Liask-T" often uses the services third parties, namely, the transportation of goods from Omsk to other cities of Russia shifts to the shoulders of transport companies. Using outsourcing services, you may face the risk of delayed delivery, loss of goods in transit, as well as damage during transportation or reloading. In order to avoid the above consequences, it is necessary to use the services of goods insurance against damage, loss and damage. So, for example, when compiling rational routes, not only the location of loading and unloading points in the transportation area is taken into account, but also the type of goods transported, the type of transport used for transportation, shift work, and the remoteness of motor transport enterprises. Therefore, Liask-T LLC has preferences in using the services of transport companies. So, each TC has its pros and cons.
Conditions for choosing a TC:
Each of these conditions must be taken into account in order to nullify all logistical and other risks arising from them.
Calculating the terms and cost of equipment delivery, the logistician of Liask-T LLC must take into account all the conditions. So, for example, not knowing the delivery time of equipment, the logistician can indicate the amount of delivery at 1000 USD, counting on one delivery, in fact, the equipment can arrive in several stages and the cost of its delivery will be much more than the pledged amount.
Logistics:
For the successful implementation of economic activities, the enterprise must have a sufficient minimum of its own working capital. The financial position of enterprises largely depends on the state of their own working capital, their safety and proper use.
Inventory management risks in this enterprise are quite high, since it is the level of inventory that is the main reason for satisfying customer demand. If the enterprise, without predicting demand, replenishes the warehouse stock, then it will face the fact that it will spend money on unsold goods, which in the future will be able to move into the group of illiquid assets. When an enterprise reduces the risk of a shortage of material resources, it tries to increase the level of stocks, but stocks can play a negative role in the enterprise, freezing the financial resources of business organizations in large volumes of inventory.
The lack of funds is fraught with a decrease in trade, the emergence of debts to suppliers and banks for loans. As a consequence, these debts lead to the risk of delayed shipments, increased delivery times, and further along the chain the same penalties for late delivery of goods to the client.
In order to replenish stocks, commercial enterprise resorts to loans, which means that it increases its overall risk. Indeed, many large client companies purchase goods under a contract based on payment after delivery. This means that the company "Liask-T" LLC is forced to take out a loan in case of a lack of its own financial resources to purchase the necessary consignment of goods.
As a result, an increase in accounts payable leads to the fact that the company will constantly divert funds from the turnover to pay interest on the loan, fines. The enterprise may not have sufficient funds to purchase the quantity of goods corresponding to demand. And this leads to a decrease in turnover, and, hence, profits, and so on along the chain. The absence of the necessary goods in the warehouse provokes lost profits.
In order to maintain the company's own working capital, the logistician needs to predict the stock, using, for example, economic and mathematical methods and models.
When forecasting the demand for durable goods, one cannot do without data on their actual consumption during the analyzed period and without the actual availability of these goods among the population, as well as the patterns of their obsolescence.
So, for example, at the supplier of Liask-T LLC, one pumping equipment can be replaced by another more energy-saving one, the price of which is lower than that of the first one.
Exploring all the logistical risks inherent in this type of enterprise, Liask-T LLC has the opportunity to warn itself against negative consequences at all stages, namely at the stage of supply, transportation and marketing.
Bibliographic list:
Reviews:
12/31/2013, 13:43 Skripko Tatyana Alexandrovna
Review: In the annotation it is necessary to indicate what the author stated in the article, and not to characterize in detail the object - the enterprise. Supplement with the necessary standard headings: relevance, purpose, research objectives, theorists who worked on this problem, etc. The article in the main part is interesting, but so far it is not recommended to print, finalize it.
01/05/2014 17:17 Response to the author's review Lushnikova Maria Andreevna:
Dear Tatyana Alexandrovna! Thanks for the review. I tried to take into account your comments. Please read the article again. Lushnikova Maria.
01/01/2014, 16:47 Degtyar Andrey Olegovich
Review: I fully agree with Tatyana Aleksandrovna Skripko. The article is not ready for publication.
3.01.2014, 15:14 Shargorodskaya Natalya Leonidovna
Review: The article is of interest and can be recommended for publication after revision. The author needs to substantiate the relevance of the research topic, indicate the authors who studied this problem. The list of references is not compiled according to the standard.
01/5/2014, 2:56 Nazarova Olga Petrovna
Review: Good analysis, just redo the annotation. After revision, it is recommended for printing. Recommended for printing.
01/05/2014 18:18 Response to the author's review Lushnikova Maria Andreevna:
Dear Olga Petrovna! Thank you for your review of my article. I tried to correct your comment. Please see the edited version.
01/14/2014, 08:52 PM Orekhova Tatyana Romanovna
Review: recommended for printing
17.01.2014, 13:24 Chernova Olga Anatolyevna
Review: The article presents not an analysis, but a methodology for its implementation. I recommend changing the title. In general, the work was done at a high level. Recommended for printing
Risk analysis - procedures for identifying risk factors and assessing their significance, in essence, an analysis of the likelihood that certain undesirable events will occur and adversely affect the achievement of project objectives. Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods for reducing risks or reducing the adverse effects associated with them.
Introduction
1 a brief description of OOO "Comfort"
2 Calculation and analysis of risks LLC "Comfort"
3 Measures to reduce risks and their significance for Comfort LLC
Conclusion
Bibliography
1. Introduction
An analysis of the economic literature on the problem of risk as an economic category has shown the existence of various approaches and opinions. This set is due, firstly, to the specifics of the problem itself, its relative underdevelopment and versatility, and secondly, to the unpredictability and variety of factors influencing the activities of subjects. The content of the term "risk" is determined by the tasks of the area where it is used. The definition of this concept also changes over time, speaking of the first definition of risk in economics, they usually refer to F. Knight (1921), who proposed to separate risk and uncertainty.
Initially, the study of the problem of risk was carried out mainly in limited areas of human activity within certain sections of mathematics, statistics, psychology, medicine, and some economic disciplines. At present, the problem of analyzing any particular type of risk is becoming the subject of interdisciplinary research and goes beyond the boundaries of a particular science.
The economic downturn in Russia has led to a decrease in interest in the study of the category of economic risk associated with the financial and economic activities of enterprises, deepening the lack of developments of this kind. Which is especially keenly felt during the exit from the crisis and the increased need for risk management.
Among the researchers of this problem there is no single point of view regarding the definition of this term. As an economic category, risk characterizes various aspects of economic relations that arise in the process of functioning of the analyzed object and can lead to any losses.
Often, the risk of making a decision in the production and financial activities of enterprises is understood as the probability of a discrepancy between the actually obtained results of the implemented decision and the goals set.
Kreinina M.S. proposes the definition of risk as "a possible danger of losses arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and human activities." Buyanov V.P. emphasizes that risk is a perceived danger.
Risk is also defined as "the level of volatility (variability) of return on investment. The higher the level of volatility (fluctuations in dividends, stock prices, etc.), the higher the risk."
However, most often the concept of "risk" is defined as "danger, the possibility of loss or damage", which corresponds to the classical theory of risk.
Currently, the risk is characterized as a potential, numerically measurable possibility of adverse
situations and related consequences in the form of: losses, damages, losses, for example - expected profit, income or property, cash and due to uncertainty, that is, with an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, unfavorable, including force majeure, circumstances, a general drop in prices in the market; the possibility of obtaining an unpredictable result depending on the economic decision or action taken. The probability of risks is the probability that as a result of making a decision there will be losses for the enterprise, that is, the probability of an undesirable outcome. Probability means the possibility of obtaining a certain result.
Project risks are a set of risks that threaten the implementation of an investment project or can reduce its effectiveness (commercial, economic, budgetary, social, etc.).
Types of investment risks are diverse. For example, one of the possible classifications:
1) By spheres of manifestation:
economic,
political,
social,
ecological,
other types.
2) By forms of investment:
real investment,
financial investment,
3) According to the sources of occurrence:
Systematic (or market).
Non-systematic (or specific).
Some sources also highlight such risks as:
the risk associated with the industry - investment in the production of consumer goods is on average less risky than in the production of, say, equipment; managerial risk, i.e. related to the quality of the management team in the enterprise; time risk (the longer the period of investing money in the enterprise, the greater the risk); commercial risk (associated with the development indicators of the enterprise and the period of its existence).
Risk analysis - procedures for identifying risk factors and assessing them
significance, in essence, an analysis of the likelihood that certain
undesirable events and adversely affect the achievement of project objectives.
Risk analysis includes risk assessment and methods for reducing risks or reducing the adverse effects associated with them.
At the first stage, the relevant factors are identified and their significance is assessed. The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the advisability of participating in the project and develop measures to protect against possible financial losses.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis aims to identify (identify) factors, areas and types of risks. Quantitative risk analysis should make it possible to numerically determine the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole.
Risk assessment is a quantitative or qualitative determination of the magnitude (degree) of risks. It is necessary to distinguish between qualitative and quantitative assessment of entrepreneurial risks.
Qualitative assessment can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the possible types of risks, as well as factors affecting the level of risks when performing a certain type of activity.
Quantitative risk assessment is determined through:
a) the probability that the result obtained will be less than the required value (planned, planned, predicted);
b) the product of the expected damage by the probability that this damage will occur.
2 Brief description of the company "Comfort" LLC
Comfort Limited Liability Company is a furniture company producing cabinet furniture and office chairs according to individual design projects and some types of serial furniture. The authorized capital is formed from the shares of the founding members, between whom a memorandum of association is concluded and there is a Charter of the organization. The supreme body of the company is the general meeting of its members. An executive body has been created for the current management of the company's activities. In Comfort LLC, he is the sole person in the person of the General Director. The branch of activity is industry. Consumers of LLC "Comfort" products are mainly end users (individual customers, population), as well as enterprises and organizations (legal entities) that take furniture for their office space. OOO "Comfort" was founded in 1994 on the basis of a sawmill processing wood for the purpose of manufacturing joinery products. During this time, the assortment has changed more than once, only the main idea of creating the enterprise - the mission of the organization - has remained unchanged. And it consists in the following: providing individual customers and firms in Novosibirsk and the Siberian region with high-quality inexpensive furniture.
Today "Comfort" is a stably operating enterprise of the city, whose products are well known not only in the Novosibirsk region, but also in the Altai Territory, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions.
On the currently LLC "Comfort" produces furniture for bedrooms, dining rooms, as well as office furniture. The nature of production is mainly single or small-scale. In the manufacture of furniture, the most advanced technologies and materials are used, so the quality of the furniture products of Comfort LLC is very high. Fully equipped with modern imported equipment and materials, production allows to produce high-quality parts with high precision.
Furniture designers are subordinate to the production director, brand departments of stores are subordinate to the commercial director.
A wide range of materials is used: chipboard of various colors, decorative plastics of imported production, including natural wood.
In addition to technologies and equipment, the company has:
- own raw material base (400 m²) for production; necessary transport;
- production and storage facilities;
Company salons.
There are only five branded salons in the Siberian region. All of them have the same assortment and price policy. However, it should be noted that there is no unified design style for these salons. Currently, the company employs 95 people. All suppliers of materials for the production of Comfort LLC are located in the Siberian region. In this regard, the delivery of raw materials and components is not difficult.
The location of LLC "Comfort" also allows you to easily supply products to customers, directly communicate with them.
The company pursues a flexible pricing and marketing policy.
Although the effectiveness of the organization as a whole can be assessed as high, the financial and economic condition of the enterprise is characterized as unstable. Therefore, in order to increase financial stability, it is necessary to use the on-farm reserves of Comfort LLC and start organizing the production of a more advanced product.
To assess the risks of LLC "Comfort" activities, the method of expert assessments and the method of prioritization were used. In the process of project implementation, the main task of the financial director will be to identify the main risks, the likelihood of risks occurring by various methods, and develop a set of measures to reduce the risk or to completely eliminate it.
Let us group the risks of the enterprise according to the nature of their occurrence, the results will be reflected in Table 1.
Table 1
Grouping risks by the nature of their occurrence
Internal |
|
1. Socio-political |
|
1) refusal of the employee to go to work |
15) changing relations with local authorities and government |
2) change of management of the enterprise |
16) the possibility of committing theft, arson |
3) change in personal relationships between leaders |
|
4) difficulties in recruiting qualified personnel |
|
2. Technical and technological |
|
5) equipment failure (accident, repair, etc.) |
17) changing the terms of cooperation with suppliers |
6) mistakes of managers |
18) the emergence of new production technologies, which leads to a decrease in product prices or the emergence of substitute goods |
7) disconnection of communications (ventilation, water supply) |
19) changing GOSTs |
3. Economic. |
|
8) non-compliance with contractual obligations by the enterprise (late shipment, wrong quality, regrading) |
20) products are not sold at planned prices and within the estimated time |
9) growth in receivables |
21) the emergence of direct competitors |
10) suboptimal resource allocation |
22) termination of relations with supplier enterprises (their closure, liquidation) |
11) lack of working capital |
23) change in interest rates on bank loans |
12) decrease in the solvency of buyers |
24) establishing regional restrictions on the movement of goods and capital |
4. Environmental. |
|
13) non-compliance with environmental standards in the production of products |
25) tightening environmental standards for storage and transportation of products |
14) possibility of fire |
26) extreme weather conditions and cataclysms |
Having grouped the risks of the LLC “Comfort” organization by the nature of their occurrence, we will assess the risks. In such cases, resort to methods of expert assessments and use the method of prioritization.
The priority method is that all possible risks are distributed into groups, and experts evaluate the likelihood of a risk occurring and assess the significance of this risk for the project.
Let's consider the risks for a specific project or enterprise, estimating the probability of the risk occurrence (B i) based on the following system estimates.
Probability of occurrence of a specific risk:
0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite can be said about the onset of the event;
75 - the risk is likely to manifest itself;
100 - the risk is inevitable.
Let's place the corresponding coefficients of significance (Kzn i) for each risk. Significance factors represent the likely magnitude of the negative impact that a risk could have if it occurs.
The sum of the significance coefficients for all risk groups is one.
Kzn = Σ Kzn i =1, (1)
where Kzn is the total coefficient of significance of all project risks;
Kzn i - coefficient of significance of the i-th risk;
n is the number of risks of an innovative project.
After determining the probability of occurrence and the coefficient of significance of each risk by expert means, the risk severity coefficient is calculated using the following formula:
Ktya i = B i х Kzn i , (2) where Ktyazh i is the severity coefficient of the i-th risk;
B i is the probability of the occurrence of the i-th risk;
Kzn i - coefficient of significance of the i-th risk.
The integral value of all risks is determined.
In = Σ Str i , (3)
where Bi is the integral value of the risk occurrence probability;
Ktyazhi - severity coefficient of the i-th risk;
The results of the calculations will be entered in table 2.
table 2
Risk assessment of LLC "Comfort"
Name of risk |
Coef. value |
Points*coefficient value (Ktyazh) |
|||
Internal risks |
|||||
employee refusal to go to work |
|||||
change of company management |
|||||
changing personal relationships between leaders |
|||||
difficulties in recruiting qualified personnel |
|||||
equipment failure (accident, repair, etc.) |
|||||
managerial mistakes |
|||||
disconnection of communications (ventilation, water supply) |
|||||
non-compliance with contractual obligations by the enterprise (late shipment, wrong quality, regrading) |
|||||
increase in receivables |
|||||
suboptimal resource allocation |
|||||
lack of working capital |
|||||
decrease in the solvency of buyers |
|||||
non-compliance with environmental standards in the production of products |
|||||
the possibility of a fire |
|||||
External risks |
|||||
changing relations with local authorities and administration |
|||||
possibility of theft, arson |
|||||
changing the terms of cooperation with suppliers |
|||||
the emergence of new production technologies, which leads to lower prices for products or the emergence of substitute products |
|||||
change in GOSTs |
|||||
products do not find sales at planned prices and within the estimated time |
|||||
emergence of direct competitors |
|||||
termination of relations with supplier enterprises (their closure, liquidation) |
|||||
change in interest rates on bank loans |
|||||
establishing regional restrictions on the movement of goods and capital |
|||||
tightening environmental standards for storage and transportation of products |
|||||
extreme weather conditions and cataclysms |
|||||
Integral value of risk |
In the risk management system, an important role belongs to the correct choice of risk prevention and minimization measures, which largely determine its effectiveness. The risk reduction system includes certain methods and ways:
1. Obtaining comprehensive information about the upcoming choice and result.
2. Risk avoidance.
3. Diversification.
4. Reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses.
5. Limitation.
6. Hedging.
7. Risk insurance, self-insurance.
8. Checking business partners and terms of the deal. Business planning.
9. Recruitment of personnel of an entrepreneurial organization.
10. Transfer of risk.
11. Other methods.
The choice of a particular method of minimizing the risk depends on the experience and capabilities of the entrepreneur and any other manager. For a more effective result, as a rule, a combination of methods is used.
In his activities, the manager encounters many risks, therefore, in addition to the main methods of minimizing them, he uses specific methods that are used only in this case. Ways to minimize the most common risks are shown in Table 1.2. (Annex 2)
Indeed, actions aimed at mitigating risk can be very different. People sign up for extreme driving courses to reduce the likelihood of an accident in difficult conditions - this is also a strategy to mitigate, minimize, eliminate risk. The choice of one or another method depends on the specific situation, the degree of risk and the capabilities of the enterprise. This is what determines the fundamental decision: to accept the risk, reducing its negative consequences by various methods, or avoid it.
The firm in the course of economic activity may refuse to perform financial transactions or from the type of activity associated with a high level of risk. This direction of risk neutralization is the simplest and most radical, it will allow you to completely avoid potential losses, but does not at all contribute to making profit associated with risky activities.
When concluding any transaction, in order to reduce the risk under economic contracts, the entrepreneur needs to check the prospective partner. The basic rule of business: "trust, but verify." A possible way to avoid mistakes when choosing a partner is to create your own system for collecting and analyzing information about potential or existing counterparties. As a model, in this case, you can use the Due Diligence system - "due attention", practiced by Western banks in relation to their clients. This system provides protection against all kinds of fraud. One of the main tools of such a system is a questionnaire, which includes questions about the name of the counterparty company and the addresses of its offices over the past two or three years; about the types of business it carries out. The questionnaire may contain questions about the company's partners and their addresses, it includes questions about the financial condition of the company and the estimated turnover or future average account balance. The most difficult questions of the questionnaire are related to the origin of the capital of the company. Such a questionnaire provides preliminary information about the client, and if something in his answers is alarming, additional research should be carried out, including the search for confirmations (or refutations) of the data received, the search for facts that the partner has kept silent about, and also verification of information through others. counterparties.
Risk diversification is perhaps the most complex and interesting method of risk management that requires high professionalism. It represents the use of the economic and mathematical concept of "negative correlation" in economic practice. The invested funds are directed to completely independent, unrelated transactions and projects. In this case, when a risk event occurs and losses appear on one transaction, you can count on a successful and profitable outcome of another. Moreover, it is advisable to focus on negatively correlated outcomes, that is, to choose investment values (objects) with directly opposite profitability vectors. Then the profits on one transaction will be able to compensate for possible losses on the other.
When forming a portfolio of securities, the problem of risk diversification is given particularly serious attention. First of all, the "rule of a dozen" applies. It is necessary to provide a sufficient variety of securities. Therefore, generally accepted practice suggests that a bank's portfolio should contain at least twelve blocks of shares in a wide variety of companies. Further, attention is paid to the level of profitability and the degree of risk of securities. Highly profitable securities usually involve a significant degree of risk. Securities with acceptable risk bring, accordingly, a very moderate return. And low-risk securities are ineffective and not interesting for the bank. A way out of this situation is offered by the “rule of five fingers”. It follows from this that in order to form an optimal portfolio, out of every five stocks, one must be low-risk, three with normal, acceptable risk, and one more high-risk, but also high-yield.
In the financial sector of the economy, in addition, a method of risk diversification, called "risk hedging", is often used. Risk hedging involves limiting the size of losses by financial instruments, but as a result, profits too. It is carried out in the form of concluding parallel financial compensation transactions, when the possible loss on one transaction is compensated by the possible profit of a friend. There are many ways to hedge risks, but the main, most used and frequently encountered are options, futures and swap transactions.
The next step in solving the problem of risk management is to study the possibility of full or partial self-insurance of the transaction. Self-insurance is nothing more than taking risks on oneself and, undoubtedly, is the cheapest (except perhaps for the refusal of risks) way to deal with risks. It is assumed that possible damage will be covered by current funds or with the help of a reserve fund. Therefore, it is obvious that the use of self-insurance opportunities is very limited. Basically, this method justifies itself if the probability of a negative outcome and the amount of possible loss are not large.
When using self-insurance, you need to be aware that the cost-effectiveness of this method turns into some negative aspects. First of all, it is "death" working capital. The company is forced to keep considerable funds in reserve, they cannot be counted on when entering into new, often interesting and effective contracts, they are impossible and dangerous to put into circulation. However, there is still a danger that a "streak of failures" will go: against the backdrop of low financial income, losses will overtake one after another in a short period of time, and any reserve funds will still not be enough. All this causes uncertainty and nervousness among the management, which will certainly be transferred to all the staff of the company. If loss prevention and self-insurance do not provide the desired protection against risk and only slightly reduce it, which in modern business it is quite possible to apply the most widespread and universally used, which has already become a traditional method of risk management, which is insurance. The essence of this method is that the entrepreneur takes an insurance company as a partner in the transaction and assigns to it, after the conclusion of the relevant contract and the payment of insurance premiums, a significant part of the expected risks. Unlike all sectors and sectors of the economy, where the risk for an entrepreneur is an undesirable side effect, in the insurance business, risks are the main field of activity. That is, the risks of the entrepreneur are assumed by the professional.
When deciding on the use of insurance, you need to keep in mind that, firstly, the risk must be of a random nature, a negative outcome must not be pre-programmed and included in the deal. Secondly, only losses that can be measured and evaluated using natural and monetary indicators are insured. And, finally, the risk itself cannot be an object of insurance. Such an object is the inventory and cash of the company [21, p.65].
Note that economic risks is an inevitable part entrepreneurial activity because they are immanent in the market. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it is quite possible to reduce a possible loss. This can be achieved through the application of risk management techniques. Of course, risk management is associated with certain costs for the company, but its implementation is necessary and justified. By managing risk, a firm sacrifices less in order to retain more. It replaces the possible occurrence of significant losses with relatively small, well-defined costs of risk management.
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